You cannot tell a good decision from a lucky one by looking at how it turned out. A single outcome is noise. A track record is signal.
This is the uncomfortable truth at the center of decision quality: the result of any one decision tells you almost nothing about whether the decision was sound. Good decisions fail and bad ones succeed all the time. The only honest measure is calibration — across many decisions, do the things you were 70% sure of happen about 70% of the time?
The Brier score
The Brier score makes this precise. It scores every forecast against reality; lower is better, zero is perfect, and 0.25 is a coin flip. It cannot be gamed by confidence and it cannot be argued with by ego. It is the same instrument used to grade professional forecasters and weather models.
Confidence feels like competence. Only one of them can be measured.
The catch is that calibration requires a record — what you expected, and what actually happened, captured over time. That loop is exactly what most people never close, and exactly what DAUDIT’s Ledger and Calibration are built to close for you.