On how serious people make high-stakes decisions.
Essays on decision quality, cognitive bias in business, and the real cost of getting the big ones wrong. Written to be read, not to rank.
Why your AI agrees with you — and what it costs on a big decision
Helpfulness and agreement are nearly the same thing to a language model. On your highest-stakes decisions, that is exactly the wrong instrument — shown side by side.
What a bad executive hire actually costs
The salary is the smallest line in the bill. Here is the real arithmetic of getting one senior hire wrong — and the cheapest point at which it could have been caught.
7 min read → On thinking tools · 11 JUN 2026Why a second opinion that always agrees is worthless
The value of advice is in the part you didn't want to hear. An adviser optimized to be agreeable has removed exactly that part.
6 min read → Frameworks · 04 JUN 2026The pre-mortem, and why almost nobody runs one
Imagining your decision has already failed is the single most effective debiasing technique in the literature. It is also the one people skip. Why.
5 min read → Decision quality · 28 MAY 2026Calibration is the only honest measure of judgment
You cannot tell a good decision from a lucky one by its outcome alone. You can tell it from a track record. The math of being well-calibrated.
6 min read →Reading about decisions is not the same as auditing one.