Your Forecast Score
This score measures one thing: how well your confidence matched what actually happened. Lower is better. It says nothing about whether a decision was wise — only whether you knew what you knew.
A score of 0.25 is what pure guessing gets you on an even-odds question. Not every question is even-odds.
Illustrative scorecard below — example data, not a verified track record.
This score measures one thing: how well your confidence matched what actually happened. Lower is better. It says nothing about whether a decision was wise — only whether you knew what you knew.
A score of 0.25 is what pure guessing gets you on an even-odds question. Not every question is even-odds.
Each time you record what you expected and DAUDIT later captures what actually happened, your forecast score updates. For life decisions, the outcome loop asks how you’re living with the choice — not whether you got it right. On business calls and life crossings alike, it breaks down by confidence bucket: when you said you were 90% sure, were you right 90% of the time? Until you log outcomes, the score stays forming.
It depends on closing the loop.
Your Forecast Score only works because The Record remembers to ask how each decision turned out — and it feeds How you decide's read of your confidence patterns.