“whether to promote an early employee into a VP role with no prior management experience”
You asked who's ready for the title. The real decision is whether you're promoting loyalty, not capability — and who else is watching.
⬡World Model Gaps
Management capability is inferred from tenure as an IC — two different skills.
▽Adversarial Risk
Passing them over after they've hinted at leaving optimizes retention this quarter over fit for the next two years. DECISION STATE Loyalty and convenience are doing work a capability assessment should do.
You asked who's ready for the title. The real decision is whether you're promoting loyalty, not capability — and who else is watching.
Horizontal axis: cognitive entropy — how many mental networks are active at once (left = narrow focus, right = many signals competing). Illustrative placement — this specimen is not a real user audit.
Sealed before the outcome was known.
The outcome will be added when it arrives.
Illustrative output — the live product renders your actual conversation this way at close.